World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

**DannyInvincible** · 07/10/2017, 2:03 AM

Originally Posted by geysir

A draw between Ukraine and Croatia is the least likely result.
I'd say if Ireland beat Wales they will go through to the play offs, probably Group H is the most susceptible to the 2nd placed team, finishing in last place ignominy.

Why do you think a draw is the least likely result? I'd say it's likely enough. They're both fairly evenly matched. Croatia are ranked 18th and Ukraine are ranked 24th. Croatia beat Ukraine 1-0 last time, although the Croatians had home advantage. Ukraine will have home advantage this time, so that may offset the slight edge Croatia have over them in ability.

I think we've a pretty good chance of Scotland failing to beat Slovenia in Ljubljana. I'd say there's a better chance of that happening than Greece failing to beat Cyprus in Nicosia, but the latter is very possible too. I think we can be confident of B&H failing to beat Belgium though. A B&H win in that fixture would be a major surprise, even if they're at home. Belgium are unbeaten all campaign and beat B&H 4-0 first time round in Brussels.

Originally Posted by samhaydenjr

Group H – Bosnia fail to win both games and a)Greece fails to beat Cyprus, b) they do beat Cyprus with a 3-goal swing (possibly 2-goal) or c) they somehow fail to beat Gibraltar and Bosnia pick up enough points to stay ahead of them

We don't need B&H to fail to win both their final two games. We just need B&H to fail to beat Belgium (and Greece to fail to beat Cyprus, of course). B&H are on 14 points in their group right now. If B&H draw against Belgium tomorrow, it'll leave them on 15 points with one game to play. If they lose, they'll remain on 14 obviously. Even if they then beat Estonia in their final game, they'll only have a maximum of 18 points, which will translate to 12 points in the runners-up table; one less than our runners-up table total of 13 points, if we beat Wales.

**DannyInvincible** · 07/10/2017, 2:45 AM

Marko Arnautović, whose father is Serbian, looked devastated both times he scored against Serbia earlier.

Video of his goal to put Austria 2-1 ahead: https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/916435216595644416

Video of his late goal which secured the 3-2 victory for Austria: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x63j6qf

Edit: Actually, it seems he wasn't awarded the third goal as Schaub is listed as the scorer on FIFA's website. Definitely looked like Arnautović had gotten a touch, but maybe not. He still looked pretty subdued about it.

**geysir** · 07/10/2017, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

Why do you think a draw is the least likely result? I'd say it's likely enough. They're both fairly evenly matched. Croatia are ranked 18th and Ukraine are ranked 24th. Croatia beat Ukraine 1-0 last time, although the Croatians had home advantage. Ukraine will have home advantage this time, so that may offset the slight edge Croatia have over them in ability.

Using a FIFA ranking position as a support for an opinion has about the same value as using a quote from Sepp

Draws at this level happen less often. In this game a draw is no use to either team, both teams will be out for the win.

Croatia have crashed badly from an imperious position in the latter half of this campaign.
This has happened to them before in the WC 2014 qual campaign.
Croatia are superior to the Ukraine, but they have to recover their mojo for this game.

I think our chances to beat Wales are slim so I'm not that bothered about the play off permutations but if we do manage to win then I think we´ll be in the play offs.

**TrapAPony** · 07/10/2017, 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by geysir

.

I think our chances to beat Wales are slim so I'm not that bothered about the play off permutations but if we do manage to win then I think we´ll be in the play offs.

..and the way that is at the moment it looks like it could be Italy, Portugal and possibly Croatia. If France don't win today v Bulgaria then it is quite likely they will end up there also. Don't think we have any chance in the playoffs either tbh.

**DannyInvincible** · 07/10/2017, 1:54 PM

Originally Posted by geysir

Using a FIFA ranking position as a support for an opinion has about the same value as using a quote from Sepp

Ha, it was a rough guide to help demonstrate their similar level. I could use other stats. They both have 17 points after five wins, two draws and a two losses. In the Elo rating system, Croatia are ranked 17th and Ukraine are ranked 30th; a slightly wider gap than that of the FIFA rankings, but not a gulf.

Draws at this level happen less often. In this game a draw is no use to either team, both teams will be out for the win.

Croatia have crashed badly from an imperious position in the latter half of this campaign.
This has happened to them before in the WC 2014 qual campaign.
Croatia are superior to the Ukraine, but they have to recover their mojo for this game.

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football...-cup-qualifier

Croatia's apparent meltdown could be another "equalising" factor.

**Cymro** · 07/10/2017, 2:18 PM

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football...-cup-qualifier

Croatia's apparent meltdown could be another "equalising" factor.

What a ridiculous decision. Either sack him before the double header or after, not during. The assistant basically has to go with his game plan now but without owning it.

They could well lose out now.

**Cymro** · 07/10/2017, 2:19 PM

As for our game, well, I don't mean to dampen the spirits on here

but our record is that we have lost once in 21 qualifiers and have 4 points from our last 2 games without Bale. All 3 results possible though.

**elroy** · 07/10/2017, 2:23 PM

Originally Posted by Cymro

As for our game, well, I don't mean to dampen the spirits on here

but our record is that we have lost once in 21 qualifiers and have 4 points from our last 2 games without Bale. All 3 results possible though.

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

**DannyInvincible** · 07/10/2017, 2:23 PM

Originally Posted by Cymro

What a ridiculous decision. Either sack him before the double header or after, not during. The assistant basically has to go with his game plan now but without owning it.

They could well lose out now.

Indeed, that it might swing a significant advantage in favour of Ukraine - who will also be at home - is a concern.

**elroy** · 07/10/2017, 2:27 PM

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

**CraftyToePoke** · 07/10/2017, 2:29 PM

Originally Posted by elroy

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

Nutshell.

**Cymro** · 07/10/2017, 2:36 PM

Originally Posted by elroy

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

If we play like we did 1st half against Austria or 2nd half v Georgia at home we will lose. Any other half of football in this campaign, we have a pretty good chance.

**Cymro** · 07/10/2017, 2:38 PM

Originally Posted by elroy

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

Imagine everyone is thinking that, probably even Georgia thinking they missed a chance to nab a play-off to be honest.

**DannyInvincible** · 07/10/2017, 2:39 PM

Originally Posted by elroy

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

This is pretty much spot on. I'm not expecting us to win. I'm just hoping we give it our all - like we did in Paris in 2009 or against Italy at the Euros - as we have absolutely nothing to lose; we'll see what happens and hopefully won't have regrets afterwards over having not given it our best shot.

Having nothing to lose lessens the pressure and eases the nerves. I'll still be despondent if we don't win, but I think I'm able to look forward to it a bit more when the expectations are lower. The fact we have a few potential worst runner-up escape-routes going for us in at least three other groups also has me feeling a bit less anxious.

**geysir** · 07/10/2017, 3:02 PM

Originally Posted by DannyInvincible

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football...-cup-qualifier

I didn't see that, interesting reaction but there is a precedent. In their 2014 WC qual meltdown they also sacked their manager just before the play offs, rallied just enough to beat Iceland and make the WC Finals. That's maybe the kick they need this time. There are some seriously talented players on that Croatia team.

**elroy** · 07/10/2017, 3:44 PM

Originally Posted by Cymro

If we play like we did 1st half against Austria or 2nd half v Georgia at home we will lose. Any other half of football in this campaign, we have a pretty good chance.

What is the general sense in Wales? Must win presumably? Or is there a feeling a draw could be enough. 12 points and a decent goal difference, it is possible though I would argue not greatest mind set to have.