World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[DannyInvincible]

...we must beat Moldova first of course.

Not necessarily. If Wales lose or draw against Georgia, we could afford to lose against Moldova and still finish second in the group by beating Wales then in Cardiff. We'd have 16 points on that basis and Wales would have 15 (if they drew against Georgia) or 14 (if they lost against Georgia). That tally of 16 points would then translate into 13 points for us in the runners-up table which is the same as what we would have even if we beat Moldova, as results against them will be discarded seeing as they'll (almost certainly) finish bottom of the group (unless they also beat Austria in their final game whilst Georgia pick up no more than two points in their final two games).

sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

There's a minuscule possibility of qualifying for the play-offs under such circumstances with some help from either group H or E. I looked at how we could get into the play-offs with 11 points in the runners-up table (which is what we'd have if we beat Moldova, drew with Wales and Wales failed to beat Georgia) here:

Just going back to group H, I'm realising that the following is quite possible (and I see zero has mentioned it as I've been composing this post): Belgium beat B&H and B&H beat Estonia whilst Greece draw with Cyprus (that game is in Cyprus, importantly) and then Greece beat Gibraltar. That'd leave both B&H and Greece on 17 points in that group and whoever had the superior goal difference between them would finish second. In the runners-up table, that'd convert to a tally of 11 points, which'd be grand for us if we're to manage 13 points.

Just trying to work out if there's any chance that 11 points for us could ever be enough to keep us out of the worst runner-up spot in the runners-up table; seems it might be possible actually... Further to the scenario outlined immediately above, if we won against Moldova, whilst Wales lost to or drew with Georgia, and we then drew in Wales, that'd secure second position for us in group D with 17 points (as Wales would finish on either 15 or 16 points). That would, of course, translate into 11 points in the runners-up table. Our runners-up table goal difference total would not improve with those results, however, and would remain at +1, due to the fact we'd have drawn with Wales and our goals against Moldova would be discarded, so that could prove detrimental if we were ranked against another runner-up on 11 points.

It wouldn't necessarily be fatal though; B&H's current goal difference in the runners-up table is +2. In their group, it's actually +11 (compared to Greece's +6), but +9 of B&H's goals were scored against sixth-placed Gibraltar, so are discarded. If B&H were to lose by a few goals to Belgium and then beat Estonia by the slimmest of margins (and finish second in group H, meaning Greece would have to get no more than 4 points in their final two games and also fail to score enough goals to better B&H's group-table goal difference total), it might actually take B&H's goal difference total below +1 in the runners-up table. As one of Greece's games is at home to Gibraltar though, Greece could score highly in this, so there'd be an obvious worry these potential goals could take them ahead of B&H into second in group H if the two sides were to finish equal on points under the aforementioned circumstances.

I think, for B&H, a 3-0 loss to Belgium and a 1-0 win against Estonia would do the trick for us in bringing B&H's runners-up table goal difference to 0. It'd be unlikely to be of use to us at +1 as they've already scored more goals than us (which is the next differentiator in the runners-up table), unless our draw against Wales in this scenario is a very high-scoring one. If Greece drew against Cyprus and also failed to score over 3 goals against Gibraltar in Athens, I'm pretty sure Greece would finish behind B&H on goal difference (with both teams on 17 points) in their group. Or if Greece lost to Cyprus, that'd make it impossible for them to overtake B&H.

If Greece, on the other hand, were to finish second in group H on 17 points (giving them 11 in the runners-up table), it's highly likely the eventual Greek goal difference total (which would already be +3 if they were ranked in the table of second-placed teams), would also be superior to ours (+1) if both of us were to be ranked on 11 points.

Likewise, if a group E team was to finish with 11 points in the runners-up table and we also had 11 points, I think it's highly likely their goal difference would still be superior, especially if it's Denmark, as, although both Montenegro and Denmark have the same goal difference (+11) in their group right now, Denmark would have more goals than Montenegro in the runners-up table as Denmark scored more of their goals against teams other than Kazakhstan and both teams' goals against Kazakhstan would obviously be discarded; Montenegro would lose +8 goals whilst Denmark would lose only +5 goals due to the discarding of Kazakhstan results.

If Montenegro were, however, to somehow finish second, say, after losing to Poland in Warsaw by 3 goals or more after having drawn with Denmark in Podgorica, which would prevent Denmark from passing them (it would also require Denmark losing to Romania in Copenhagen by as many goals as the margin by which Montenegro lost to Poland), I'm pretty certain 11 points and our goal difference of +1 would be enough for us in the runners-up table in order to take us to the play-offs. That possible outcome would be extremely unlikely though, surely.

It's extremely improbable that we'd make it to the play-offs with a draw in Cardiff, but not mathematically impossible.

[DannyInvincible]

RTÉ have also compiled an outline of possible permutations that may allow us to qualify for the play-offs: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...-playoff-spot/

I was just looking back through this in greater detail and noticed that the author suggested that the following results in group E would be optimal for us:

Group E

Montenegro v Denmark (narrow home win)
Poland v Montenegro (comprehensive home win)
Denmark v Romania (away win or draw)

Result: Montenegro would potentially fall behind Ireland on goal difference; Denmark wouldn't reach the 13-point tally on goal difference

I see Balls.ie have suggested similarly in their permutations summary: https://www.balls.ie/football/what-d...rld-cup-375017

Montenegro are the second-placed incumbents, level on points with third-placed Denmark and three points behind leaders Poland. The best jumping off point here is to hope the group winners run away with things, so let's start by hoping that Poland beat both Armenia and Montenegro.

If they go clear at the top, that means we only have to worry about Montenegro or Denmark. Given that both of those play each other tomorrow night, we would be better off if Montenegro had the decency to beat Denmark and then get battered by Poland. That would mean that Montenegro would rank level with Ireland on 13 points, but their current goal difference is plus-eleven, eight better than Ireland's. They would need to edge victory against the Danes and then suffer an almighty hammering against the Poles.

And added to that, we need Denmark to drop points at home to Romania on the final day, to avoid them edging Ireland on goal difference in the playoff rankings.

That final sentence doesn't even make sense; if Denmark drop points against Romania after having already dropped points against Montenegro, their goal difference won't matter. In my opinion, we should be hoping for a draw between Montenegro and Denmark in Podgorica. Why on earth would we want Montenegro ranking level with is on 13 runners-up points if they've a much superior goal difference already?

That game between Montenegro and Denmark is tonight and a draw is quite likely, in my opinion. We'd then be looking for Montenegro to also fail to beat Poland in Warsaw in their final game (very possible as Poland, the group-leaders, beat Montenegro in Podgorica) and for Denmark to fail to beat Romania in Copenhagen in their final game (less likely but not impossible, considering they drew 0-0 in Bucharest). That combination of results would leave both Montenegro and Denmark on 18 points in their group, which would translate to 12 points in the runners-up table. If we can beat Wales and finish second in our group, we'll have 13 points in the runners-up table, so we'd definitely be positioned above either Montenegro or Denmark in such a scenario. I think that might be one of our more hopeful possibilities (along with group H).

[DannyInvincible]

A few games that could affect whether or not we get to the play-offs are about to kick off shortly.



In group C, we're looking for a very heavy win for Germany over NI, preferably by about 5 or 6 goals.

In group E, we're looking for Montenegro and Denmark to draw.

In group F, we need Scotland to beat Slovakia. We also want England to beat or draw with Slovenia. England beating Slovenia would be preferable obviously.

[Philly]

None of those looking certain right now anyway.

[irishfan86]

Slovakia has been playing with 10 men for about 40 min now. Although as we are too well aware, that doesn't always mean the team with 11 men will get the result.

[zero]

potential avenues are beginning to close for us... 30 mins to play though.

[DannyInvincible]

Scotland pushing for a goal now and getting closer. Just hit the cross-bar.

[DannyInvincible]

I don't know how Scotland haven't scored yet. They hit the cross-bar again and the Slovakia keeper is playing a blinder. They're still piling on the pressure though. Slovakia looking like they'd settle for a draw at this point.

[DannyInvincible]

Magic. Scotland score.

[nigel-harps1954]

Scotland with what looks an 89th minute winner. Doesn't a draw suit us better there given Slovakia play Malta in their final game? A win over Moldova and Wales guarantees finishing above them if Slovakia draw tonight, but Scotland winning means we'll need to have a better goal difference than Scotland.

[geysir]

Scotland winning is to our adv, a draw for Slovakia would have been worse for us considering their goal diff.
Pity Slovenia conceded so late, a draw there would have been better for us as they would have something extra to play for v Scotland.

[DannyInvincible]

Nah, a Scotland win was definitely the result we needed. A draw would have brought Slovakia on to 13 points in the runners-up table with a superior goal difference to us.

If Scotland and Slovenia draw now or if Slovenia beat Scotland, we'll be in the playoffs if we beat Wales and finish second.

[zero]

Scotland with what looks an 89th minute winner. Doesn't a draw suit us better there given Slovakia play Malta in their final game? A win over Moldova and Wales guarantees finishing above them if Slovakia draw tonight, but Scotland winning means we'll need to have a better goal difference than Scotland.

if scotland draw their last game, then slovakia finish second, but only on 12 points as the results v malta are discounted. in fact, is it not the case that either a slovenia win or a draw is good enough? i believe so.

[nigel-harps1954]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.

[DannyInvincible]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.

[dantheman]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.

Been asked before I am sure but can we qualify by drawing with Wales (beating Moldova and Georgia drawing tomorrow as well)??

[colonelwest]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.

I know the feeling, it's basically this:

[DannyInvincible]

if scotland draw their last game, then slovakia finish second, but only on 12 points as the results v malta are discounted. in fact, is it not the case that either a slovenia win or a draw is good enough? i believe so.

Spot on. If Scotland fail to beat Slovenia, we'll be through to the play-offs so long as we beat Wales and finish second. We'll know the result from that game too going into Monday as it'll be on Sunday night. I'm feeling a good deal more optimistic all of a sudden.

[geysir]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.

I was going to suggest that you might have had one too many
Should it matter, the only bad result for us in that group would be a Scotland win v Slovenia,

[zero]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.

group A all but closed aswell. that northern ireland late goal in the 1-3 loss to germany means we'd need a 5 goal swing in our favour to finish above them.

i agree that scotland failing to win in slovenia seems quite tangible now and feels like our best hope. big games for us now tomorrow (ourselves), saturday (the greece/bosnia group) then slovenia scotland on sunday evening.

if we can go into the monday game needing 3 points to get a playoff spot, then i think it's true that quite a few people would have taken that at that the start of the group.