Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
There would really have to be an incredibly huge swing left for that to happen. Sinn Fein will be delighted to come away with somewhere between 25-30 seats, maybe a bit more on a really good day. The AAA/PBP would be doing well to get 6 or 7. Even throwing in 3 "Inds4Change", the 4 or 5 Soc Dems and the hard left Independents with them, it would be nowhere near 79.
This Dail is going to be as hung as any in the history of the state. Only thing resembling a stable government I can see is a minority FG/Lab coalition kept going with FF assent as it see's fit.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
Irish elections are seldom truly national these days. There are 40 almost completely unrelated elections happening on Friday. For that reason I suspect SF and FF will exceed expectations. When telephone polls are being carried out people are being asked which party they will vote for, and people might be less likely to admit to voting for either party, but when it comes to the ballot box I think they will be more likely to vote for the local candidate of those parties.
Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".
I know SF have historically tended to underperform compared to opinion polls but their candidates will be better known know than at any previous election. A lot of them are councillors now rather than just an unknown name. It's a lot easier to assume that person you have never heard of is just a provo in a suit.
Conversely I could see independents not doing as well as the polls would expect. The boundary changes could have a hefty impact. Independents by their nature focus hard on the constituency. When those lines move the candidates from the big parties will pick up votes in the new areas by virtue of party loyalty, but independents get no such benefit.
I'll have a guess at...
FG 53
FF 39
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26
Last edited by backstothewall; 24/02/2016 at 1:57 AM.
Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.
How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.
FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)
I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
I don't see how. They'd only consider Fine Gael if they were the larger party, which remains unlikely, and Sinn Fein's membership doesn't seem stupid enough to go in with them as a junior party, in the unlikely event they'd have the numbers. They'll be happy to remain one of the central opposition voices.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
That local political thinking does my head in.
It is kind of funny, that we are in a "recovery", yet FG wont win a majority, says a lot about the economic realities of the country
Anyway let me give a guess!
FG 59
FF 32
SF 30
Lab 7
SD 3
R 2
AAA 5
Green 1
Others 30
I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to you
FG 58
FF 34
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26
With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh
I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
I'm think SF will hold up well this time. Tomorrow's Indo will have the usual 'Gerry Adams sells drus to kids' election day headline, but I suspect that is serving them well among voters who might be considering voting for them. INM and RTÉ are as much a part of the establishment as the '3 Amigos', and they jumped the shark with the Late Late last Friday.
People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard
You keep saying "people" but the "people" have voted in a FG or FF government every single time this country has voted
They'll still be the top 2 parties this election too.
So the "people" are happy enough to see Adams and SF have their past dragged back up it seems
54,321 sold - wws will never die - ***
---
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People eh?
And they'll do the same again. But it'll probably take FF and FG together to keep the eh... populace in line this time. That's NEVER happened before.
It's another 5 years of the same old same old but there's hope for the next time. Something worthwhile could rise out of the ashes of Labour yet. They could break bread with SF once Adams retires and in 5 years time there could finally be a government who make a few changes.
I'm not even after revolutionary changes. But someone might just tell RTE that a national broadcaster stopping programing twice a day for the ****ing Angelus just isn't acceptable this century
Taking my previous caveats about the polls, SF are the only ones that have moved beyond the margin of error the whole campaign (maybe Labour have in one or two). "People" may be annoyed at the establishment, it doesn't look like they're moving to SF from other parties or undecideds.
Main problem for SF this time has been the economy, and Adams performance on it, rather than the (sometimes legitimate) criminality questions.
If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.
I got a letter in the door from Emmet Stagg this morning, announcing that new schools for the area are going to be approved "in 4 to 6 weeks". Every constituency analysis I've read has claimed he's as safe a seat as Labour has, so if he's pulling this kind of thing on the eve of the vote it must be looking really bad.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
I went through the constituencies one by one attempting not to be biased.
Seems I may be biased towards Labour.
FG: 55
FF: 33
SF: 25
LB: 16
SD: 3
RN: 3
Others: 23
Last edited by BonnieShels; 25/02/2016 at 10:31 PM. Reason: Forgot Dublin SW
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
I came up with the following after going through each constituency on Paddy Power and taking the favorites to win a seat in each constituency. Eg 5 seater - I took the top 5 in the betting, 4 seater, top 4 and so on...
Fine Gael 55 (+1 C.C.) 56
Fianna Fail 40 *shudders
Sinn Fein 24
Labour 10
AAA / PBP 6
Social Democrats 3
Renua 1
Independents 18
Last edited by Real ale Madrid; 25/02/2016 at 9:24 PM.
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