Paddypower and League of Ireland Betting

**davidatrb** · 27/09/2014, 7:56 AM

Do Paddypower know that there are 33 matches in the League of Ireland season? If so how are Shamrock Rovers still in the betting? Is there some points deduction looming over Dundalk?

Cork City are 4/1 which is about as likely as Man City across the water. Doesn't seem right to me. Seems like Paddypower think there is more time left than there actually is. Dundalk are very tempting right now.

I feel like I must be missing something???

mathematically impossible.PNG

**Pablo Escobar** · 27/09/2014, 8:04 AM

Haha, good spot!

**Mr A** · 27/09/2014, 9:16 AM

If there are people dumb enough to take that bet why wouldn't they offer it

**Ezeikial** · 27/09/2014, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by davidatrb

If so how are Shamrock Rovers still in the betting?

Maybe Stuey Byrne is still tipping them for the title?

**davidatrb** · 27/09/2014, 4:50 PM

fixed.PNG

Well they fixed it now. Was probably okay value if you got Dundalk earlier this morning.

**Charlie Darwin** · 27/09/2014, 6:07 PM

The odds aren't recalculated automatically - the traders have to reset the prices manually, so I'm guessing the table updated but the odds didn't. Particularly for relatively specialised betting like LOI, it takes a bit longer.

**davidatrb** · 27/09/2014, 6:32 PM

Can they not leave themselves really exposed with something like that especially coming to the end of the season? Usually they will take the odds down while they are re-calculating, no?

**Charlie Darwin** · 27/09/2014, 7:02 PM

Originally Posted by davidatrb

Can they not leave themselves really exposed with something like that especially coming to the end of the season? Usually they will take the odds down while they are re-calculating, no?

They would for the big bets, but I don't think Shamrock Rovers' title chances is a big market right now. If it was something like English Premier League odds, they'd be calculating them in real time.

**davidatrb** · 27/09/2014, 7:19 PM

Its not Shamrock Rovers Im worried about. Dundalk's odds were obviously underestimated. A big bet there would have been good value. I'm keep an eye on it for next couple of weekends.

**Charlie Darwin** · 27/09/2014, 7:22 PM

1/7? Hardly going to bring the house down. The LOI is a very small market - if they get a really big bet they'd be more likely to shut the book down. They'd probably rather offer the old odds than go through the rigmarole of closing the book and reopening it.

**Briuk** · 30/09/2014, 5:02 PM

Originally Posted by Charlie Darwin

1/7? Hardly going to bring the house down. The LOI is a very small market - if they get a really big bet they'd be more likely to shut the book down. They'd probably rather offer the old odds than go through the rigmarole of closing the book and reopening it.

Loi is not that small market, if you know the bookmakers you can easily stake 20k in hcaps or over/under, with brokers stakes can go even higher.

**Charlie Darwin** · 30/09/2014, 5:22 PM

Originally Posted by Briuk

Loi is not that small market, if you know the bookmakers you can easily stake 20k in hcaps or over/under, with brokers stakes can go even higher.

For Paddy Power that's a drop in the ocean. It's not worth spending 100k+ employing another actuary for, which is what you need to do to have up-to-the-minute odds on small markets.

**oriel** · 30/09/2014, 8:47 PM

Originally Posted by davidatrb

Do Paddypower know that there are 33 matches in the League of Ireland season? If so how are Shamrock Rovers still in the betting? Is there some points deduction looming over Dundalk?

Cork City are 4/1 which is about as likely as Man City across the water. Doesn't seem right to me. Seems like Paddypower think there is more time left than there actually is. Dundalk are very tempting right now.

I feel like I must be missing something???

mathematically impossible.PNG

I noticed it was 1/7 on fri night, then 1/9 on Sunday. Although we can lose two and still win it if we get 6 points as long as we beat Cork, I'd take a bit of that 4/1 on them for value if I was a Cork fan.

Good spot on Rovers though.

**nigel-harps1954** · 30/09/2014, 10:32 PM

Here's a good one. Harps are 20/1 with Paddypower to beat Pat's on Sunday.

**Dodge** · 30/09/2014, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by Briuk

Loi is not that small market, if you know the bookmakers you can easily stake 20k in hcaps or over/under, with brokers stakes can go even higher.

You can't bet that much with PP on LOI. Not a chance

**PartySaint** · 30/09/2014, 11:50 PM

Originally Posted by nigel-harps1954

Here's a good one. Harps are 20/1 with Paddypower to beat Pat's on Sunday.

That's mental, draw no bet is 11/1, I'll be having a piece of that.

**nigel-harps1954** · 01/10/2014, 8:25 AM

Originally Posted by PartySaint

That's mental, draw no bet is 11/1, I'll be having a piece of that.

Nonsense. All or nothing. I feel like wasting a tenner.

**oriel** · 08/10/2014, 11:02 AM

After Cork beat Drogs on Fri the odds on Dundalk moved from 1/7 to 1/5, and Cork reduced from 4/1 to 7/2 I think.

I looked this am and its now showing 1/12 & 6/1 respectively, anyone know how they could have moved so much as nothing has changed since 9.45 last Fri night?

**Mr A** · 08/10/2014, 11:12 AM

Looks like people have been lumping on Dundalk.

**PartySaint** · 08/10/2014, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by oriel

After Cork beat Drogs on Fri the odds on Dundalk moved from 1/7 to 1/5, and Cork reduced from 4/1 to 7/2 I think.

I looked this am and its now showing 1/12 & 6/1 respectively, anyone know how they could have moved so much as nothing has changed since 9.45 last Fri night?

More people might have put money on Dundalk when they came into 1/5 so they might have decided to bring the price to 1/12