QuoteFAI and Noel King were unaware of the seeding situation
http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/socc...king-1.1559480
You'd think a team that got hammered 8-1 Friday night wouldn't be in pot 2. The rankings can be strange sometimes....
FAI and Noel King were unaware of the seeding situation
http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/socc...king-1.1559480
In the case of Slovenia, surely they cannot overtake us then, as if they're the worst runner up, then they won't have any playoff matches to get ahead of us?Originally Posted by elroy
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
But I think if Slovenia win and Iceland don't win then they will go second and probably not be the "worst 2nd" - which looks like being Denmark or Bulgaria. If this happens then Slovenia will get into the play offs and good results in the play offs will see them overtake us.
And yet we have to wait til Feb for the raw.
At least Brazil 2014 is in December. I love a good draw me.
DID YOU NOTICE A SIGN OUTSIDE MY HOUSE...?
Yeah just see that there now re: Slovenia.
About Hungary, I don't believe they are anything to be afraid of, but nor do I believe they'd be a guaranteed 6 points. They've done ok in the last two campaigns, and it should be pointed out that the Dutch have scored over 20 goals against them in the last two campaigns, which is more than all the other teams put together. (21 vs 13) so I'd pay zero attention to their form vs Holland.
it's underage where they're coming on. They've had a lot of isolated decent performances, from U17 through to Under 21's, even if actual achievements are small.
They knocked Portugal out at Elite Stage of the 2008 euro's, finishing 3rd in the finals, knocking Spain out in the group stage. This qualified them for the 09 World youth cup, where they again finished 3rd, despite a tonking in their first game, winning their group, and then defeating Czechs, Italy, before losing to winners Ghana.
That said, looking at those seeding groups, they are the team you would want to be drawing really, if we do turn out to be a 3rd seed.
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
By my reckoning Israel are just ahead of us in the rankings after their away draw to Portugal and now have an easy last game.
These were the rankings on Sept 20, there's ca 1,000 points for a draw and 2,000 for a win. In all likelihood we will be 3rd seeds.
If there is a 9/1 chance before any qualifying draw, of Ireland getting Iceland in their group and we have had 7 qual draws since they were last paired, does that make the odds the same or different, that they will be paired for Euro 2016?
And if you don't think the odds are any different, would you say the same about the odds in a game of Russian Roulette with 9 chambers in the gun, entering into the 8th round?
Last edited by geysir; 14/10/2013 at 11:10 AM.
The events are independent of each other.
Here's another probability problem:
You're in a game show and you have 3 upside down cups, one with a valuable coin underneath, the others with nothing.
If you guess right you keep the coin. You are asked to select a cup by pointing to it. Then the compere takes away one cup that he knows does not contain the coin.
Should you stick with your original selection or switch?
Last edited by Stuttgart88; 14/10/2013 at 11:50 AM.
Don't the odds implore you to switch your choice. That was in a film I saw once with kevin spacey and jim sturgess.
Here they come! It’s the charge of the “Thanks” Brigade!
Not only were they unaware, they provided King with incorrect information.
Hard to beleive. I can only assume they now understand the situation...With Ireland needing to win in order to maintain their hopes of winning a four-way race with Slovenia, Romania and Turkey for a second seeding in the qualifying stages for Euro2016, the Dubliner – who apparently was not aware of the seeding situation after being told by the association these games would not count towards France – said that he will retain the basic 4-2-3-1 system employed in Germany but that there will be changes even if he has not quite settled on what they are likely to be.
They're independent events, every time you flip a coin, it's a 50:50 chance it's going to be heads or tails. Doesn't matter what the previous flip was, or the previous 5000 flips. If I flipped a coin and it came up heads, what actual physical reason would there be for the next flip to be tails? It's not as it the act of me flipping the coin the first time has made one side of it heavier or anything.
It's called the Gambler's Fallacy, pretty common among people who don't have a background in maths or stats.
The "three cups" thing is called the Monty Hall problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem, and it's a total headwrecker, but yes, switching will give you a better chance of winning the prize. There are arguments on both sides, and it was basically only formally settled by running a computer program that tests switching and not switching tens of millions of times, and seeing what the results balance out as.
Yes, the Monty Hall problem. I knew the name but didn't post it because I didn't want people to google the answer before posting!
The bit that wrecks my head is that by switching the odds improve to 2/3 rather than improving from 1/3 to 1/2. The wiki page explanation sourced from The Economist is probably the best.
That said, is any UEFA draw a purely random event?!
Last edited by Stuttgart88; 14/10/2013 at 12:38 PM.
we covered this in first year probablility
you always switch, there's a one in three chance your original choice is correct, there's a one in two choice the remaining cup is correct
<EDIT>
sorry, replied before I read the other replies
But you're wrong.
You should always switch, but the odds increase from 1/3 to 2/3, not from 1/3 to 1/2.
It all depends on whether you chose right first time around. If yes, switching causes you to lose. If no, switching causes you to win. So, switching wins in 2 out of 3 original scenarios.
I think that's it anyway!
Never mind this, is there any way we can avoid being third seeds?
Those who gave cause for a little bit of optimism, did not count on Israel having a draw in Portugal because a draw was outside the predictive radar of probabilities and calculations were neglected to be rectified. The little bit of realistic optimism around Slovenia and Turkey, now shattered by Israel just having to beat NI.
But I could be mistaken.
It'd be fun to see AB cheering on NI though
Well, I have cheered them before...
The latest means we don't have to worry about that particular Asian team...
http://www.ybig.ie/forum/euro-2016-q...85_page25.html
but Turkey, Slovenia and probably Romania?
Reckon if we win, down to us and the latter given the fixtures...
Last edited by ArdeeBhoy; 15/10/2013 at 12:38 AM.
yeah i didn't realise that we get points just for turning up and losing to Germany, so no need for anybody to lose any sleep over Israel beating NI, as long as we win, we'll stay ahead of Israel.Well, I have cheered them before...
The latest means we don't have to worry about that particular Asian team...
http://www.ybig.ie/forum/euro-2016-q...85_page25.html
but Turkey, Slovenia and probably Romania?
Reckon if we win, down to us and the latter given the fixtures...
Turkey are 1-0 down to Holland already. Robben put the Dutch ahead after eight minutes. 16 minutes gone so far in that game.
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