Discussion on a United or re-partitioned Ireland

[nigel-harps1954]

Does it make me a bad Irishman if I would welcome a United Ireland more for the opportunity it would bring to tear down and rebuild the rotten political system in the Republic than anything to do with nationalism and territorial integrity?

Funny, that's kind of my view, and subsequent hopes for it too.

[BonnieShels]

That's a very pragmatic viewpoint tbh and one which I would be in agreement with.

[CraftyToePoke]

Of all the fig leaves we can offer Unionism, a 'look lads, we need a hand to sort this sh*t out, its a mess' would surely turn their heads, see, this works on every level

And with Unionism's proven track record of a one tier society with a fair hand dealt to all and opportunity based on merit they will be the very men we need, surely ?

[BonnieShels]

Of all the fig leaves we can offer Unionism, a 'look lads, we need a hand to sort this sh*t out, its a mess' would surely turn their heads, see, this works on every level

And with Unionism's proven track record of a one tier society with a fair hand dealt to all and opportunity based on merit they will be the very men we need, surely ?

I couldn't think of a group of people more suited to the task tbh.

[BonnieShels]

There is an interesting article on FT.com.

It's behind a paywall so I'll quote some of it here if that's okay:

EU prepares for post-Brexit membership for united Ireland
European leaders are preparing to recognise the potential for a united Ireland” within the EU, confirming that Northern Ireland would seamlessly rejoin the bloc after Brexit in the event of a vote for Irish reunification.

In a step that may stoke concerns in Britain that Brexit could hasten the fragmentation of the UK, diplomats are planning to ask leaders of the EU’s 27 post-Brexit member countries to endorse the idea in a summit on Saturday.

It would allow the province to follow the example of German reunification in 1990 and reflect the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland...

...No final decision has been taken on a specific text on Irish unity. It would be part of accompanying documents to the guidelines for Saturday’s summit, because it is seen as a clarification of law rather than something to be negotiated in Europe’s talks with Britain.

Officials warned that a reference to the idea could still be excluded because of the acute sensitivity around independence questions in Scotland and Catalonia in Spain.

EU27 ambassadors were first told of the plan at a meeting on Wednesday but Donald Tusk, European Council president, has yet to share a text, which was suggested by Dublin.

Enda Kenny has pushed for a “united Ireland” reference in the final Brexit treaty that will confirm the UK’s exit, but an EU statement at the outset of talks would be seen as a diplomatic coup as he prepares to step down as taoiseach — prime minister — after six years.

Advocates of the reference to Northern Ireland and reunification say the reference simply reflects the Good Friday pact, signed long before Brexit was anticipated. But it would still send a powerful signal at a sensitive moment in the politics of the island...

https://www.ft.com/content/f4c720b0-...b-5528796fe35c

[DannyInvincible]

Does it make me a bad Irishman if I would welcome a United Ireland more for the opportunity it would bring to tear down and rebuild the rotten political system in the Republic than anything to do with nationalism and territorial integrity?

Just on that note...: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7703141.html

A mass uprising against the Irish government would be joined by more than half of young people in the country, a survey has indicated.

Fifty four per cent of 18 - 34-year-olds said they would take part in a “large scale uprising against the generation in power if it happened in the next days or months”.

The survey polled nearly 20,000 people in Ireland as part of the European Broadcasting Union’s Generation What? research.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I wonder how the people making/responding to that survey defined "uprising".

Edit: Just saw this on the news: http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0...nited-ireland/

[BonnieShels]

Just on that note...: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7703141.html

It's absolute tosh.

AS if the youth of today are "persecuted".

They are being ridden by the generation that came before us though.

[BonnieShels]

I wonder how the people making/responding to that survey defined "uprising".

Edit: Just saw this on the news: http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0...nited-ireland/

Some very strong language in there. I think Enda and Co have played a blinder on this issue.

[DannyInvincible]

Brian Walker on Slugger O'Toole feels that the EU's declaration on a future accommodation of Irish unity further isolates a weakened UK, but may also lead to unionism being less willing to co-operate with the south: https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/28...ish-isolation/

[The EU declaration makes unity a little more attractive by eliminating the possibility of a renegotiation of EU membership is] no more than a statement of the obvious that the British government is on its own when it comes to defending Theresa May’s "precious, precious Union". Under different circumstances the EU would have been more circumspect about the prospect of Irish unity due to the EU principle of actively defending the territorial integrity of member states. But now that the UK is leaving the EU that principle no longer applies with the same force, provided consent for Irish unity is given.

While the EU is not saying they actively support Irish unity post Brexit, their declaration leaves the UK more isolated and it could make unionists more reluctant to cooperate with the south on a practical basis.

Some interesting comments:

The english electorate voted out of the EU for 10 billion a year. Remind me how much it takes them to keep NI afloat?

English nationalsim will be the force that brings unionism to Dublin, not SF, demographics or 50% +1

With Brexit about to become a financial clusterf**k how long more will NI be indulged by a country who will look at their income and expenditure and decide where to cuts its cloth and the priorities for its dwindling resources.

This one is similarly complimentary of Enda Kenny:

In fairness to Enda Kenny he and his Foreign Policy team have played a blinder on this. They've managed to harness the goodwill generated towards Ireland in Europe since the crash, by Ireland being good Europeans throughout the bailout in order to shape the European approach to Brexit to suit Ireland and its interests. It shows that if you play the European game right it can pay real dividends to smaller countries. This is something that the British never realised they were never comfortable playing away on the European pitch so they decided to take their ball and go home.

This will be a real factor whenever we have a border poll. It's going to be a simple question.
Do you want to be a very small part of an isolated UK? Or do you want to be a large part of a United Ireland that's part of the EU?
There's now a real geopolitical aspect to the constitutional question and I really don't think that Unionism will be able to cope with that. Circling the wagons won't work with Farmers looking for EU payments and Business community looking for access to FDI and the European markets.

[NeverFeltBetter]

As much as a I fully agree with the statement as it pertains to the north and would compliment the government on pushing for it, the idea that it came about because we were "good Europeans" during the crash and after makes my skin crawl a little.

[peadar1987]

Just on that note...: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7703141.html

Yeah I'd also be curious how they defined a "mass uprising". I'd wouldn't pick up a gun or even throw a stone, but if there were thousands marching in the streets or even a campaign of civil disobedience, yeah, I'd probably join that.

[DannyInvincible]

As much as a I fully agree with the statement as it pertains to the north and would compliment the government on pushing for it, the idea that it came about because we were "good Europeans" during the crash and after makes my skin crawl a little.

Heh, I hear you. It's not the most pleasant of thoughts and I'd personally be hesitant to heap too much praise upon Enda, but I thought it an interesting interpretation of developments, or perhaps realpolitik even, in the broader context nonetheless.

I'm assuming Walker is arguing that the declaration "could make unionists more reluctant to cooperate with the south on a practical basis" because he feels they'll fear such future co-operation would only further weaken the union with Britain and strengthen the case for Irish unity. Considering political unionism represents a minority now, with those unionists who'd be actively hostile or antagonistic towards the south representing fewer numbers, they'll be paddling against the tide. Nationalism and the non-designated middle-ground ("Other") - now representative of greater numbers - will be pushing for enhanced co-operation.

[BonnieShels]

This though: "...could make unionists more reluctant to cooperate with the south on a practical basis."

The very nature and existence of Unionism is predicated on a concept of non-cooperation. The middle ground will grow and the likes of Campbell, McCausland and Poots will be left behind. Thankfully.

[BonnieShels]

The Daily Mail's rational and considered take on the situation:

European leaders plot to UNITE IRELAND with a referendum and keep Ulster in the EU as Tusk warns border issue MUST be settled before Brexit trade talks begin

- EU set to state that Northern Ireland would be welcome in bloc if it unites with the Republic
- Northern Ireland voted 55.8 per cent to remain in the EU in last year's referendum
- The move reflects deal offered to East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall
- But support for united Ireland is cool, with only 22 per cent keen for reunification

EU leaders are set to pave the way for a united Ireland by declaring that it could automatically stay in the bloc.
The hugely controversial issue will be raised at a crucial Brussels summit this weekend, where leaders will agree their Brexit negotiating demands.
They are expected to approve a text making clear that Northern Ireland will be welcomed into the club if it merges with the Republic.
The move emerged as European Council President Donald Tusk issued a warning that Theresa May will have to settle issues around Ulster's future before talks on a Brexit trade deal can begin...


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz4fY4zGcJj

Jeffrey Donaldson was of course measured in his response: " 'no chance' Northern Ireland would want to abandon the UK and join a 'struggling' EU."
"'None of this changes the reality that Northern Ireland remains part of the UK and I believe it is likely to do so in the lifetime of every single person alive today.
'What the EU is doing is little more than clarifying a legal position. No person in their right mind would want to give up British citizenship to join an organisation that is seriously struggling.
'This is no more than the Irish government trying to lay down a marker that there wouldn't be a problem.
'There is more chance of the Irish Republic wanting to rejoin the UK... given its huge dependence on the UK for trade.'"

[backstothewall]

My take is that today had nothing at all to do with Ireland.

The precident of Germany is as obvious as getting hit by a brick. Today was about putting Scotland and Catalonia off.

I'd like if possible to bring this back around to the issue of partition and the huge damage it does to our society. This week in the north we have had controversy over the potential closure of Daisy Hill Hospital in Newry. It seems ludicrously obvious to me that there should be an acute regional hospital in Dundalk to cover the people of Newry, Dundalk and Drogheda and surrounding areas. Yet people in Newry having a heart attack are to be carted off the Portadown.

This is crazy. This is directly because of partition. Partition is crazy.

[DannyInvincible]

My take is that today had nothing at all to do with Ireland.

The precident of Germany is as obvious as getting hit by a brick. Today was about putting Scotland and Catalonia off.

In that the message to Scottish and Catalan separatists is that the north of Ireland will only be accommodated with continued EU membership because it would be uniting with a present member state rather than going independent alone? Why would today necessarily set a precedent for the Scottish and Catalan situations considering those situations aren't really analogous to our situation at all? And isn't the EU sympathetic to the soon-to-be-marooned Scots?

[backstothewall]

The EU has always given the tit to the mouth screaming the loudest. Ireland want it made clear that Northern Ireland should be able to rejoin the rest of the island in the EU without any paperwork or bull****, and Spain want it made clear that Scotland can't. And that is exactly what has happened.

No European nation with a reasonable economy and human rights record has ever been told no as far as i am aware, but it seems obvious that Spain would want to pull up the drawbridge in the event of a Scottish application to rejoin. But for that the Scots would have been given a much better reception imho.

[DannyInvincible]

Obviously, as far as a fearful Spain is concerned, accommodation of Scotland by way of assuring Scots a smooth or seamless transition back into the EU bloc would only give encouragement to Catalan separatists, but when was it made clear that Scotland would have great difficulty re-joining the bloc? Was that clarified yesterday/today? Hasn't there been a bit of ambiguity and confusion over that since Scotland's independence debate began with most pronouncements from those in the know making clear that Scotland would have to re-apply but that this really shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle?

This STV piece from the 20th of February claims that "[a]n independent Scotland could be "fast tracked" to full European Union membership by 2023, according to two academics".

This Guardian piece from the 14th of March states:

An independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU, a senior official in Brussels has said, complicating Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a second independence referendum.

A European commission spokesman indicated that any newly independent country would have to negotiate to join, referring to the position adopted by the former commission president José Manuel Barroso [in 2012].

That reiterated position of Barroso was first set out in 2012.

Meanwhile, this New Statesman piece from the 29th of March argues that this notion of possible Scottish difficulty in the future is a pretence:

"But Spain", is the common response to a discussion of whether, by voting for independence, Scotland could effectively reverse Brexit. "Disaster for Sturgeon as Spain BACKS May over plans to block Scottish independence vote," declared the Brexiteer's favourite, The Express, this month. Spain, according to this narrative, would unilaterally puncture the SNP's bubble by vetoing readmission to the EU. An independent Scotland would be cast adrift into the North Sea.

I just don't buy it. I have put this question to everyone from former EU member state ambassadors to the former World Trade Organisation head and the answer has been the same: "It can be managed."

What has effectively or substantively changed as of yesterday or today, as far as Scotland's potential future route back into the EU (if it decides to leave the UK) is concerned?

[DannyInvincible]

For what it's worth, the EU27 unanimously approved the draft negotiating guidelines for Brexit talks with UK within 15 minutes today.