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Thread: Scotland at the crossroads

  1. #141
    Stats Man TheBoss's Avatar
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    We all knew that the Labour vote would be affected by their disastrous campaign for the union, but this poll would suggest that they could lose almost 85% of their seats in Scotland!

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/po...-shows-4646014

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    It's great. delighted now.

    SNP are now bigger in Scotland than the LibDems are. Will the BBC et al be able to keep them out of the GE debates? Hardly makes sense that UKIP are gonna be involved and the SNP are left out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BonnieShels View Post
    It's great. delighted now.

    SNP are now bigger in Scotland than the LibDems are. Will the BBC et al be able to keep them out of the GE debates? Hardly makes sense that UKIP are gonna be involved and the SNP are left out
    In a UK General Election, the SNP (like the Welsh and Irish nationalist parties, and the DUP) are effectively regional. UKIP (and the Greens) are national. UKIP also won our national EuroParl election earlier this year.

    The debates may not actually happen, most likely because Cameron doesn't want either Farage or Clegg on the panel.

  4. #144
    Coach BonnieShels's Avatar
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    I know how it works Sheesh.

    I'm merely pointing out the incongruity of the 3rd largest British party being denied access to a debate for apparent regionalism.

    You could argue that UKIP are regional as well, their one MLA and with yesterday's defection in the north they have 4 councillors as well. Whoop dee doo.

    In a GE, could they get a seat? Unlikely.

    So forgetting about Cameron having the debate or not for starters, in the event of a debate happening should the 3rd largest party in Britain be omitted? No they shouldn't.
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    Of the 591 seats in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the SNP are going to contest zero. That's why they aren't going to be in a national debate screened mainly in those places.

    There's no incongruity. The fourth biggest party in Parliament (DUP) will be excluded for the same reason.

    UKIP are national. In the last national election (Euros in May) they contested every seat in this country, unlike Labour and the Lib Dems.

    Ridiculing them for modest support in NI is a bit pointless. Almost every hack in each of the four Unionist parties would be at home in UKIP.

    Are you suggesting that UKIP will get no seats at all, anywhere in Britain, in 2015? Unlikely. They have a chance with a charismatic or well-known candidate (Farage himself, or Doug Carswell who won a recent by-election), or where there's a lot of recent immigration from eastern Europe, or in my own area where there's been an organised hard-right set-up since the 60s.

    As for SNP, there'll be televised debates in Edinburgh, which they'll dominate, and they're happy enough with that. The rest is just froth.

    You know how it works now

  6. #146
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    I never stated that UKIP won't get seats. They will. In England. The SNP will end up with more seats than them and will therefore be a bigger party than them.

    Every seat (in theory) in Westminster has the same value as each other so by that reckoning the SNP SHOULD be involved in the debates.

    Also, standing for EVERY seat means nothing on the face of it. Remember Libertas, they were great craic.
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    The Greens compete nationally, they have an MP - Why shouldn't they get a platform? The TV stations want to reduce the amount of candidates purely on what they view will make good TV. They'd love to include Farage purely because he does. All of this has little to do with democracy of course. I personally don't like the leader debates as they turn the election into some sort of Presidential stand off.
    The 2015 UK election is going to be truly fascinating. How many seats will Labour lose in Scotland? No-one knows. Scotland has had a habit of voting SNP in Holyrood elections whilst switching to Labour for General Elections. Has the referendum changed all that? I think it has. I'm not sure that UKIP will take that many seats under the FPTP system. If they take less than 20, then that surely hands the election to the Tories unless Labour makes major inroads in England. That seems unlikely at the moment. Labour could make some hay in England at the expense of the Lib Dems of course but I don't see that being enough. If anyone is interested, the bookies are currently saying this
    Labour majority 11-4
    Conservative majority 4-1
    Conservative Lib Dem Coalition 4-1
    Labour Lib Dem Coalition 4-1
    Conservative minority government 6-1
    Labour minority government 13-2
    Labour SNP coalition 10-1
    Conservative UKIP coalition 20-1
    Labour UKIP coalition 100-1

    Source - Paddy Power as of today

    Personally wouldn't bet on a Labour majority for the reasons I've given. It is amazing to see so many options being given by a bookie on a UK general election under FPTP. Interestingly they are not offering odds on a Conservative - SNP coaltion!!
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  8. #148
    International Prospect bennocelt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davey View Post
    Labour majority 11-4
    Conservative majority 4-1
    Conservative Lib Dem Coalition 4-1
    Labour Lib Dem Coalition 4-1
    Conservative minority government 6-1
    Labour minority government 13-2
    Labour SNP coalition 10-1
    Conservative UKIP coalition 20-1
    Labour UKIP coalition 100-1

    Source - Paddy Power as of today

    Personally wouldn't bet on a Labour majority for the reasons I've given. It is amazing to see so many options being given by a bookie on a UK general election under FPTP. Interestingly they are not offering odds on a Conservative - SNP coaltion!!
    Now your talking my language, some betting.
    PP can be a bit hit and miss regards elections, this shows they have no idea really. No way a majority by any party, but as to the colour of the minority gov, no idea.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BonnieShels View Post
    Every seat (in theory) in Westminster has the same value as each other so by that reckoning the SNP SHOULD be involved in the debates
    So do you think the DUP should be there too, but not UKIP, if there's room for only five candidates round the table?

    Also, standing for EVERY seat means nothing on the face of it. Remember Libertas, they were great craic
    Disagree, it's pretty important in a FPTP system. The Tories haven't won a seat in Liverpol, Manchester or Sheffield for years, but they'll contest all of them in the GE. Ditto Labour in Surrey, Dorset etc. They'd be ridiculed if they didn't.

    In the special circumstances of NI, UKIP and the Tories get some small credit for at least making the effort.

    I agree largely with Davey. The stats from Paddy Power summarised: 54% chance of Labour leading the Government, 46% Conservative.

    PS Most LibDem MPs in England have a) well over 40% of the vote (details available on request) and b) the Tories as their main challenger. It's not impossible that Clegg's crowd might hold many or even most of them.
    Last edited by Gather round; 20/11/2014 at 12:13 PM.

  10. #150
    Stats Man TheBoss's Avatar
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    Thought I'd re-bump this thread as it seems the likes of Salmond believe a second referendum is 'inevitable'.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-...itics-33668002

    Although polling suggests the result would probably be the same as it was last year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...rendum_polling

  11. #151
    Coach BonnieShels's Avatar
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    There'll be none next year.

    The SNP would be mad to throw out another one so soon. If there's another no-vote then that's independence dead for generations.

    Sturgeon has a big decision to make about putting it in the Holyrood Manifesto next year which the SNP are going to absolutely walk and end up with a huge majority.

    By not putting it in the manifesto it could be the thing that sways middle-Scotland to vote SNP. And then achieveing an overwhelming majority coupled with the 56/59 at Westminster should ensure that there is some mandate in the years to come without explicitly saying so in the manifesto.

    Another couple of years of this Tory government and there'll be clamours for independence in Scotland from all sides.
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    Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by culloty82 View Post
    Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.
    Maybe from the list. No one is going to back out of voting for the winning team.

    ULA?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BonnieShels View Post
    There'll be none next year.

    The SNP would be mad to throw out another one so soon. If there's another no-vote then that's independence dead for generations.

    Sturgeon has a big decision to make about putting it in the Holyrood Manifesto next year which the SNP are going to absolutely walk and end up with a huge majority.

    By not putting it in the manifesto it could be the thing that sways middle-Scotland to vote SNP. And then achieveing an overwhelming majority coupled with the 56/59 at Westminster should ensure that there is some mandate in the years to come without explicitly saying so in the manifesto.

    Another couple of years of this Tory government and there'll be clamours for independence in Scotland from all sides.
    Quote Originally Posted by culloty82 View Post
    Not to mention that with SNP control of Holyrood all but assured, nationalists who "lent" them their vote over the last 12 months, might well be inclined to opt for the Greens or the new Scottish ULA next year in order to create a pro-independence opposition.
    Well now... seems like we're gonna get some Indie mwssing this year again...

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0508/786...sturgeon-vote/
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  16. #155
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    She did say before that the only justification for a revote would be Brexit - and though Leave has a narrow lead now, one suspects the status quo will, narrowly, win out ultimately.

  17. #156
    Seasoned Pro backstothewall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by culloty82 View Post
    She did say before that the only justification for a revote would be Brexit - and though Leave has a narrow lead now, one suspects the status quo will, narrowly, win out ultimately.
    Which status quo? Membership of the UK, or membership of the EU?

    That's what makes this such an interesting aspect of this. They were able to get 46% to vote to overturn the status quo last time. Who knows what they can manage now that the status quo has been shattered.
    Bring Back Belfast Celtic F.C.

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    Membership of the EU.

    I have been nothing but impressed with Sturgeon since she took over leadership of the SNP and Scotland but she has knocked it out of the park on this.

    Her speech last Friday was one of the most spectacularly weighty, intentioned and yet nuanced speeches I have ever heard in my life.
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    I can't see how Scotland can reject independence again. It would be the most bizarre volte face, after electing so many SNP MP's and voting Remain.
    Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).

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    They won't. The literal only barrier to independence is being able to have the second referendum. And there will be all out war trying to get that to happen.
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    Never say never. Here's to an independent Scotland and a UI, might be the only good thing to come out of this Brexit nonsense.

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