Scotland at the crossroads

[Sheridan]

http://circumlimina.wordpress.com/20...s-tartan-turn/

[NeverFeltBetter]

Some really patronising ****e from plenty of Irish people on my social media feeds tonight, mansplaining-esque in their reasons to vote Yes. Almost as bad as the English celebs in the Vote No camp.

[Charlie Darwin]

Some really patronising ****e from plenty of Irish people on my social media feeds tonight, mansplaining-esque in their reasons to vote Yes. Almost as bad as the English celebs in the Vote No camp.

And Irish celebs in the Vote No camp.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Oh yes, lets not forget Sir Bob.

[Macy]

Anything I've seen or heard from the Tories so far (pretty limited due to work) about Devo Max, has not so much been about what powers Scotland will have, but limiting the power of Scottish MP's in Westminster. Better (for the Tories) Together indeed...

[DannyInvincible]

Pretty decisive win for the 'Better Together' campaign in the end. Will the chances of and conditions for an independence vote ever be as ripe again? Much of the discontent has been seen as a reaction against "effing" Tory rule - Labour are favourites to win the next general UK election - and, of course, the separatist minority will be appeased now with those extra powers (assuming the unionist Westminster trio do deliver on their promises). That will surely de-radicalise its potential sting. Hardeep Singh Kohli of the 'Yes' campaign condemned the result as a victory for "Project Fear" and as representing a mandate for a continuation of the status quo. It would be very bad faith on the part of the Westminster trio to fail to deliver now.

[Charlie Darwin]

They can hardly complain if Devo Max isn't delivered - they voted on a vague, non-binding commitment and if it's not delivered they don't have anyone to blame but themselves. Nevertheless, I hope it works out for them.

[Gather round]

Pretty decisive win for the 'Better Together' campaign in the end

Support for separation is now significantly higher in Scotland than NI! I'd hardly call that a decisive win for BT

Will the chances of and conditions for an independence vote ever be as ripe again?

Quite likely, yes. Six months of polls after the next GE, showing YES well above 50%, say?

Much of the discontent has been seen as a reaction against "effing" Tory rule - Labour are favourites to win the next general UK election - and, of course, the separatist minority will be appeased now with those extra powers (assuming the unionist Westminster trio do deliver on their promises). That will surely de-radicalise its potential sting

Labour share much of the coalition's 'austerity' programme. But it's a big assumption that they'd deliver if they win the next election. If, for example, the payback for more devo to Scotland is their Scottish MPs being excluded from English votes.

[DannyInvincible]

They can hardly complain if Devo Max isn't delivered - they voted on a vague, non-binding commitment and if it's not delivered they don't have anyone to blame but themselves.

Certainly, and more fool them if so. In spite of the promise, presumably, any devo-max proposal will have to be approved by a majority in Westminster first? Is majority support even likely? Possibly not. It was a (vague, as you say) promise desperately bundled together at the last minute. And mightn't the other regions expect similar then, perhaps even regions within England? What might happen if the unionist parties fail to deliver? Interesting times...

[DannyInvincible]

Support for separation is now significantly higher in Scotland than NI! I'd hardly call that a decisive win for BT

Hmm, maybe so. I guess what I meant was that the result was nowhere near as close as the recent inconclusive "49-51" opinion polls were predicting.

Quite likely, yes. Six months of polls after the next GE, showing YES well above 50%, say?

It remains to be seen. If the Conservatives are voted out and greater powers are granted to Holyrood, I can't see support for full independence increasing. It'll be what Samond originally wanted as one of the options on the ballot papers anyway. There's a sense that the question has now been out to bed for at least a decade or two now and Salmond did express acceptance of the democratic decision and urged unity within Scotland in his speech this morning. That would indicate he doesn't really see another referendum happening for the foreseeable future.

Labour share much of the coalition's 'austerity' programme. But it's a big assumption that they'd deliver if they win the next election. If, for example, the payback for more devo to Scotland is their Scottish MPs being excluded from English votes.

Fair point.

What inspired your change of position, by the way? Weren't you originally of the feeling that everyone in the present UK was better together? If you are supportive of Scotland's place outside of the UK, what about NI's? Could you ever come to accept NI leaving the UK?

[osarusan]

It was a (vague, as you say) promise desperately bundled together at the last minute.

I wonder was it. They wouldn't put it on the ballot in the first place, which SNP wanted.

So now they get to present it at the 11th hour, offer vague promises instead of something made binding by referendum, destabilise the Yes campaign, and not allow the SNP to claim victory at the polls as they would have if devo max had been on the ballot and been the number one choice.

I think Salmond has been out-politicked, and he probably knew that's why devo max was off the ballot too.

[DannyInvincible]

That's a good point. You may well be correct. Maybe it was the "break in case of emergency" option all along. The proposal only entered into the general debate when one of the YouGov opinion polls put "yes" ever-so-slightly ahead in an opinion poll last week.

[DannyInvincible]

Interesting one, this, and, no doubt, coloured by a petty sense of diplomatic retaliation for western criticisms of Russian elections; Russia cries foul over this morning's counting procedures: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ish-referendum

Russia has said the conduct of the Scottish referendum "did not meet international standards", with its observers complaining the count took place in rooms that were too big and that the procedure was badly flawed.

In an apparent attempt to mirror persistent western criticism of Russia's own elections, Igor Borisov – an accredited observer – said the poll failed to meet basic international norms.

Borisov and three other Russians arrived in Edinburgh on Wednesday evening, the state news agency Ria Novosti reported. The team from Moscow's Public Institute of Suffrage watched voting take place in the Scottish capital and the surrounding area. It also met with Scottish politicians, voters and representatives from non-governmental organisations, Ria said.

Borisov said he was unimpressed by what he saw. He said the room where he watched the count on Thursday night was a cavernous "aircraft hangar" next to an airfield. It was difficult to see what was going on, he said, adding: "The hangar is approximately 100m by 300m. There are tables, with voting papers stacked upon them, but the observers are stuck around the perimeter. Even if you want to, it's impossible to tell what's happening. It's also unclear where the boxes with ballot papers come from."

Borisov said the US state department, the UK and other western countries loudly hectored the Kremlin about Russia's supposed democratic deficiencies. But in this instance, he said, London and Edinburgh had not "fully met" the requirements of a proper referendum.

"Nobody was interested in who was bringing in the voting slips. There were no stamps or signatures as the bulletins were handed over," he said.

Meanwhile, a video of counting footage from Dundee doing the rounds is claiming the count was rigged:



Dundee's 'Yes' campaign did clarify that there was nothing to worry about, however:

[NeverFeltBetter]

Saw a lot of kneejerk RT's of similar stuff last night. People not realising all votes are counted up before being being sorted into results. That and claims that some people tried to vote twice in Glasgow. All a little desperate imo.

[DannyInvincible]

That and claims that some people tried to vote twice in Glasgow. All a little desperate imo.

Haven't they heard of voting early and voting often?

[Gather round]

What inspired your change of position, by the way? Weren't you originally of the feeling that everyone in the present UK was better together? If you are supportive of Scotland's place outside of the UK, what about NI's? Could you ever come to accept NI leaving the UK?

a) health the key issue for me. I don't fully trust the SNP but the obsessive Tory privatisers frighten me sh*tless

b) yes, usually/ previously housing's been the most important issue. Beyond football matches and karaoke/ open mike I'm not too bothered about flags and anthems etc.

c) I don't have any direct emotional/ financial interest in Scotland (never lived there, no family etc.). So it's up to the locals really

d) obviously there isn't a direct parallel, as Nationalists in NI don't want independence, and even if Unionists did the inherent instability means it's a non-starter

e) yes, as I've said here I accept the possibility however small of a UI. If, for example there's some combination of 'Orange Flight' to a small geographical area of suburban Belfast while at the same time Westminster imposes ever stricter financial cuts.

[The Fly]

They can hardly complain if Devo Max isn't delivered - they voted on a vague, non-binding commitment and if it's not delivered they don't have anyone to blame but themselves. Nevertheless, I hope it works out for them.

Devo Max would give the Scottish government the power over most reserved matters except Defence and Foreign Affairs. That was never offered, so it won't be delivered.

[The Fly]

Hmm, maybe so. I guess what I meant was that the result was nowhere near as close as the recent inconclusive "49-51" opinion polls were predicting.

I think when the days and weeks pass and the disappointment for the Yes campaign begins to settle they can reflect on a remarkable achievement. 10 or 15 years ago who would've thought that Scotland would even have a referendum on independence, let alone that 45% of the population would vote for it. The result is no endorsement of the Union. Indeed the most interesting thing to take from the result is that the Yes vote would've won had it not been for the over 60s. The support for No amongst OAPs almost trebled that for Yes, so the demographic edge is with independence.

In other words, the genie is out of the bottle and it ain't going back. In my view the only thing that can halt the further destabilisation and possible ending of the Union is a move to the full federalisation of the British state.

[DannyInvincible]

e) yes, as I've said here I accept the possibility however small of a UI. If, for example there's some combination of 'Orange Flight' to a small geographical area of suburban Belfast while at the same time Westminster imposes ever stricter financial cuts.

Ha, you've already answered my follow-up-in-waiting; "If you can see a place for NI outside of the UK, could you envisage a place for it in a new all-island Irish state?"

What is the meaning of "'Orange Flight' to a small geographical area of suburban Belfast"? I'm afraid that reference has gone over my head. Does it refer to a possible situation where the unionist population has become a minority in such a way so as to lack the influence to prevent such a development?

[Gather round]

What is the meaning of "'Orange Flight' to a small geographical area of suburban Belfast"? I'm afraid that reference has gone over my head. Does it refer to a possible situation where the unionist population has become a minority in such a way so as to lack the influence to prevent such a development?

Sorry, didn't explain it properly.

I mean, basically, the Unionist population in Ulster country falling significantly as older people die while the younger move to suburban Belfast, or England and beyond.

If there are basically no Prods in Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry beyond Coleraine, NI looks lopsided even if Nats can't manage 50%.