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I think it was McGeady. To be honest, I had a beer-bellied b*stard partially blocking my view in the pub, so I didn't totally see the name on the back of the shirt. 'Mc' is hardly a rare part of Irish surnames, hah. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Some Welsh pundit called Rush (in his day, a John Aldridge wannabe ) on the BBC was talking about the upcoming crunch game between Wales and Ireland, as if there were not two games out in the far east for Wales to negotiate first before they earn the right to be a contender for a crunch game.
If Wales can manage to still be in contention for 2nd place in that last game, they will still have to overcome their historic ability to fall flat under pressure in the face of qualification finality.
There's no thread dedicated to potential runners-up/play-off permutations, so I'll post this here in the qualification opponent watch thread...
Denmark's 1-4 away win over Armenia earlier this evening was a bad result for us in terms of the ranking of the runners-up. It has shifted us from 7th to 8th in the ranking table and we're now teetering on the brink of missing out on the play-offs:
http://i68.tinypic.com/inx17t.png
Looking at the potential fortunes of whichever group H team finishes second in that group, B&H have group-winners Belgium to play at home next and then fifth-placed Estonia away in their final game. They can pick up a maximum of 14 points in the ranking table of the runners-up, although you'd fancy Belgium to take points off them, even if the game is in Sarajevo and Belgium are already qualified for the finals. In my opinion, it's more likely B&H will finish on 11 or 12 points, so goal difference (theirs is already the same as ours at present) may come into play if we end up on 11 or 12 points also. Of concern is the fact that if B&H manage at least one win and we can only manage a draw or two in our remaining games that will count towards the ranking, that will obviously push B&H ahead on goal difference.
The other threat from that group would be Greece, who would already be on 10 points in the runners-up rankings if they were in second place rather than in third place in group H right now. They'd be on 10 points - a higher runners-up table tally tally than B&H's - as they haven't played the bottom team, Gibraltar, twice yet.
http://i68.tinypic.com/jh5xdf.png
Greece play Cyprus away from home in the next round of games and then play Gibraltar in their final game. The Gibraltar game definitely won't count towards their final tally though as Gibraltar are already guaranteed to finish bottom of group H. I'd fancy Greece to get something against Cyprus though, if not a win, so they'll potentially finish on 11 or 13 points, most likely the latter. Worryingly, their goal difference would already be higher than ours; they'd be on +3 right now, by my working out.
It's important to remember that our result at home to Moldova won't count for these rankings, so our only chance to pick up points on this front will be in the games against Serbia and Wales. It's going to be bloody tight if we finish second after failing to pick up a win against either.
There is technically the possibility of Georgia finishing bottom, which would actually suit us after Saturday's result. It's unlikely though as they've already played Georgia twice. They'd have to beat Austria or Wales at home (it does us no good losing to them ourselves just to bump them up a place!)
But stranger things have happened.
That's even worse. We were given the run around by a team that usually only plays itself. O'Neill out.Quote:
Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Ah sugar. I must have deleted a line...
We need Moldova to win a game.
The neutrals' dream scenario
ie D rs
mv A wl
at H ge
rs 16, wl 14, ie 14, at 11, ge 4, mv 2
at H rs
ie H mv
ge H wl (thanx for correction)
ie 17, rs 16, wl 14, at 14, ge 7, mv 2
wl H ie
rs D ge
mv A at
rs 17, ie 17, wl 17, at 17, ge 8, mv 2
Runner up loses on countback...
Who produced that table- Szinn Fejn's press office?Quote:
Originally Posted by DannyInvincible
Predicted play off qualifiers
Switzerland
Italy
Ukraine
NI
Slovakia
Sweden
Greece
Montenegro
Wales
You mean the Ulster Loyalist's dream scenario?? :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
A likely scenario though
Although not an Ulster Loyalist, I'm pretty sure they'd prefer you to finish with less than 17 points ;)
For this scenario wl H ge should be ge H wl.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
I know you'd prefer Wales to qualify but giving them 2 shots at Georgia in Cardiff isn't cricket dear boy ;-)
It was the table from Wikipedia ranking the second-placed teams as things stood after Denmark beat Armenia. Here's how things stand after the remainder of last night's games:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gather round
http://i67.tinypic.com/wspyki.png
Ta, corrected as above.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman
I'd prefer Serbia to qualify actually. Backing the underdog and all that...
If we draw - win - draw, we are likely to be pipped by Wales for 2nd anyway. If we pick up 7 points in the last 3 games ( 4 in the SRB/WAL ) we will have done enough to keep us out of the worst runner-up spot. The only way I see this scenario being an issue is if Wales fail to beat Georgia in Tblisi, thus handing us second place if we draw in Cardiff.
I must say its looking likely that we could end up unbeaten and in 3rd. I can't see Wales handing the initiative to Georgia like we did.
Reposting this:
Had another look, didnt realise we were on 11 points.
So if The nether-region beat Sweden, we're in as they'd be on 11.
Turkey Beat Iceland we're good
Turkey draw with Iceleand we're good
Montes beat Denmark but lose to Poland
Belgium beat Bosnia then it doesnt matter what they or Greece do..
To be honest, if we beat Wales we'll qualify. Odds are in our favour.
Beating Wales should not be a daunting task
We're not on 11 points though. If we were in second position in our group, we'd currently be on 10 points in the table ranking the second-placed teams.
We have 13 points as it stands in group D and the away win over Moldova is discarded, so that'd bring us back down to 10 points for the second-placed ranking.
http://i65.tinypic.com/25jcgls.png
Dannyinvinicle, if we collect 6 points do you think "best guess" that will be good enough for a play off?
In the 2nd place musical chairs table, what are the odds that there will be a few teams joined at the bottom on 13 points and it goes down to goal diff?
In that scenario NI would probably need another point in order to avoid the dreaded "come in nr 9" call.
Permutations to avoid that nr 9 spot are complex
eg, If B&H don't beat an already qualified Belgium at home, then up steps Greece to the podium with an opportunity to claim 2nd place in Cyprus and end up on 13 points.
In Iceland's group, it's a reservoir dogs style mexican standoff.
Aye, 13 points in the countback might well see someone lose out on goal difference. Mikey O'Neill may set out to lose narrowly like in our last game with Germany.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Personally, I fear it won't be enough. If we do manage two wins in our final two games and finish second, I suspect we'll still miss out on the play-offs on goal difference. I expect Greece to finish second in group H with two wins over Cyprus and Gibraltar in their final two games and I think that'll prove fatal for us. There are other results in other groups that could go our way, but I'm not overly confident. I think Scotland could still finish second on 18 points in their group, for example, which would leave them on 12 points in the runners-up table (a point behind our hypothetical 13), but the likelihood of results going that way in Scotland's group is exceptionally slim, I'd say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diggs246
It's a total head-fry trying to work it all out. I genuinely think you'd need some sort of programme/generator to compile a list of all the possible permutations in order to see which results would be beneficial for us. Usually the much-maligned Balls.ie are useful for that sort of thing; their saving grace perhaps, ha. They may well have their people on the case.