2017 NI Assembly Election
I think this is all but confirmed now.
Sinn Féin
Given the likely candidates to replace McGuinness the move from military to civilian leadership seems likely to take a big leap forward. That provides a new challenge for everyone. They choose to have an election and it isn't hard to see why. Beyond fending off the odd PBP candidate they don't have much opposition within nationalism. On the up side they have a nationalist electorate energised by Brexit and the chance to have a do over after the mess they made of Fermanagh-South Tyrone last time.
PBP
They will have a bright future but it seems like this has come a bit early for them to make big gains. Gerry Carroll will get back, Eamonn McCann pobably will, and they might even get a 2nd in West Belfast, but they needed more time for their candidates to build a profile.
SDLP
I like Colm Eastwood, and Clare Hanna is obviously a formidable operator, but after that the quality of their candidates falls of a cliff and they have massive problems local organistation. It's hard to see anything but another set of results that leave them licking their wounds after yet another kicking from Sinn Féin
Alliance
Probably as you were for Alliance. Gains are probably very unlikely and given the reduction in the number of seats they could possibly lose a seat or 2, but they will get most of their team back. David Ford looks vulnerable in south Antrim
Greens
No chance of gains with the number of seats going down. They will be delighted to retain their 2 seats
UUP
Anything could happen in unionism. The lack of polling that has been done makes this a bit of a mystery really. Mike Nesbitt seems to have solved the internal problems in the party and has been impressive in opposition. Depending on what comes out about the RHI scheme they could well be the big winners, or they could end up worse off with the reduction in seats.
DUP
They will do their best to turn this into a sectarian headcount, but everyone else will be trying to do the opposite. It remains to be seen how much success they will have. Their administration has been marked by scandal after scandal after scandal. For people who are so insistent about being British they would fit into Irish politics very well indeed.
Others
Jim Allister will get back, but the real fun here has to be Jonathan Bell if he attempts to get elected in Strangford up against his former DUP colleagues with the UUP leader hanging around into the bargain.