The Facts
We asked the DUP for evidence to support that claim, and they directed our attention to a particular section of the 2011 Northern Ireland Census (
pg 17).
http://img2.thejournal.ie/inline/322...ersion=3228969
Source: NISRA
This shows that in 2011, the main language of 1.02% of Northern Ireland residents (17,731) over the age of three was Polish. For 0.24% (4,130) it was Irish.
However, this is not the full picture.
We dug a bit deeper into the 2011 Census, and found the following:
- 10.7% of the population aged over 3 (184,898) had some level of knowledge of the Irish language, however minimal
- 6% of the population aged over 3 (104,943) spoke (or could speak) Irish
(You can examine all this data for yourself by downloading a spreadsheet below).
So while relatively few residents of Northern Ireland had Irish as their main language, many more than that had some aptitude with the language, and around 6% did or could speak it.
How does that compare with Polish? Unfortunately, we can’t say for sure, because the Census does not have similarly detailed figures for Polish speakers, as it does for gaeilgeoirí.
But we do know this:
- In 2011, some 17,739 Northern Ireland residents had Polish passports
- 19,747 identified as “Polish” or had a related multinational identity (such as “Irish and Polish” or “British and Polish”)
- 19,658 Northern Ireland residents were born in Poland
- 17,731 listed Polish as their “main language”
- Of those who identified as Polish (whether exclusively or in combination with another national identity), only 4.4% said their main language was not Polish.
The Census has detailed (and fascinating) data on the levels of skill and knowledge in the Irish language – whether reading, writing, speaking, or understanding.
But it does not have similar data for the Polish language, so we can’t say for sure how many Northern Ireland residents, in 2011, could speak or read or understand Polish, in addition to those who listed it as their main language.
And unfortunately, there has been no separate research into this that we could use as evidence.
However,
we know that it is highly unlikely – implausible, even – that that number would even approach the equivalent figure for Irish, which 184,898 had some knowledge of, and 104,943 could speak.
Some 19,747 people identified solely, or in part, as Polish in Northern Ireland in 2011 – a greater number than had Polish passports or were born in Poland.
The number of Polish speakers would therefore have to be more than five times the number that identified as Polish, to match the number of Irish speakers.
While we don’t have the figures to confirm it, FactCheck is willing to rule that out as a plausible scenario. Some of the reasons for that are explored in the next section. [View this section in link as I have not quoted it.]
...
Conclusion
Northern Ireland Assembly election 2017 campaign DUP leader Arlene Foster at the party's Assembly election campaign launch on Monday.
Remember that the number of Northern Ireland residents in 2011 who described themselves as being able to speak Irish was 104,943.
Even if we allow for a generous estimate of 30,000-35,000 people of Polish identity currently living in Northern Ireland, it is simply implausible that the number of people with the ability to speak some Polish would even approach 104,943.
“There’s absolutely no way that that would be the case,” says Honorary Consul Jerome Mullen.
Despite the absence of clear, official data on the number of people in Northern Ireland with the ability to speak Polish, we do have a significant other data from which we can draw a conclusion.
Arlene Foster’s claim was “There are more people in Northern Ireland that speak Polish, than speak Irish”.
While it is true, based on the 2011 Census, to say there are more people who regard Polish as their main language, this is not the same thing as people who can speak Polish or Irish.
And based on the data available to us, FactCheck is willing to rule out as implausible the possibility that the number of Polish speakers is greater than the number of Irish speakers.
We rate Arlene Foster’s claim
Mostly FALSE. As our
Verdicts Guide explains, this means: “There is an element of truth in the claim, but it is missing critical details or context. Or, the best available evidence weighs against the claim”.
To download a spreadsheet containing all the data relevant to this article, click
here.