Originally Posted by
Stuttgart88
Stu, I don't think for a minute we'll get those results, but the thing is they're all perfectly feasible.
I posted a few years ago an analysis of what has historically been required to get first & second in these groups. Generally you need at least 2 points per game to secure second (though we got 17 I think in the WC 2010 campaign, and still finished comfortably ahead of Bulgaria). I'm not sure what the changing group sizes and other stuff has done to change this in the meantime but if 2ppg is still the benchmark we're a point off course already. However, so are the others and Russia aren't exactly tearing ahead.
I think I used a golf analogy in the dying days of Kerr's reign and I'll do it again. We've played 7 holes out of 18 and are 1 over par. Level par is the projected cut. We need at least one birdie and no more bogeys. We've had one double-bogey (Russia) and one birdie (Armenia). We missed a good birdie putt in Slovakia.
There may only be a couple of birdie opportunities left: can we make the putts? Or will we miss the green like we did against Russia? Maybe the cut will be one or two over.
I reckon the cut may be higher, we'll hit most of the greens in regulation and putt like we have the yips! Maybe it's time for a belly putter.